Bitcoin (BTC) continued its downward trajectory on Friday, slipping to $103,500 before rebounding slightly to trade near $106,600. The drop marked another volatile session for traders and highlighted growing pressure across the derivatives and spot markets.
According to on-chain data, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index — a metric that compares BTC prices on Coinbase versus other global exchanges — flipped red for the first time in weeks. This means U.S.-based traders are showing less buying enthusiasm, with prices on Coinbase now slightly lower than on non-U.S. exchanges.
Earlier this week, Bitcoin’s price briefly held above $110,000, supported by steady institutional demand from the United States. The premium even climbed to 0.18, its highest level since March 2024, indicating robust U.S. buying activity. However, as BTC failed to maintain that level, confidence among traders faded quickly.
Short-Term Pressure Mounts as Selling Volume Spikes
The shift in market sentiment has been accompanied by a sharp increase in selling activity. Bitcoin’s taker sell volume surged above $4 billion, suggesting an aggressive wave of market sell orders.
This selling pressure coincided with Bitcoin’s rejection near the short-term holder (STH) realized price — currently around $112,370 — a crucial level representing the average entry price of recent buyers. A rejection below this level often triggers short-term losses as traders cut positions.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim this level, analysts warn it could accelerate a deeper correction toward $100,000, a psychological support zone that may determine the next major trend direction.
Despite the short-term weakness, the daily Coinbase Premium Index remains slightly positive. This suggests that long-term institutional buyers in the U.S. are still active, but their momentum has slowed significantly amid growing market uncertainty.
RSI Hints at Potential Market Bottom
A major technical indicator — the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — now reflects Bitcoin’s most oversold level since April 2025. The RSI has dropped to around 34, similar to readings seen during the last major correction earlier this year.
In April, Bitcoin’s RSI reached this same level before a gradual 30% recovery that extended into June. Technical analysts view such low RSI readings as potential bottom zones, where selling exhaustion begins to fade and accumulation quietly resumes.
This similarity between the current and April market structures has fueled speculation that BTC could be nearing a local bottom, even if short-term volatility continues.
Key Support: The 200-Day EMA
Bitcoin’s 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) has acted as a strong support line for nearly six months, serving as a key long-term indicator of market health. The EMA has supported Bitcoin’s price since April 2025, mirroring its behavior during the October 2024–March 2025 rally.
However, with BTC now trading close to this trendline, analysts caution that losing the 200-day EMA could invite further downside pressure. A decisive close below this level might confirm a temporary bearish phase before a potential rebound.
Still, historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin often consolidates near its 200-day EMA before recovering, making this zone a focal point for both traders and institutional investors.
Mirroring the March–April Bottom Phase
Market analysts have drawn parallels between the current price action and Bitcoin’s March–April 2025 bottom structure. During that period, BTC experienced sharp intraday sell-offs followed by gradual recovery, as liquidity built up over several weeks before reversing.
If the same pattern unfolds, Bitcoin could retest the $100,000 support zone before entering a prolonged consolidation phase. The recovery phase in Q1 lasted around 45 to 55 days, forming a sustainable bottom by late April.
Applying this timeline to current conditions, Bitcoin’s market structure suggests that a true recovery might not materialize until late November or early December, assuming support levels hold steady.
Outlook: Quiet Accumulation Phase Ahead?
While near-term risks remain, the broader setup indicates Bitcoin may be entering an accumulation phase, rather than a deeper bear trend. On-chain metrics show that long-term holders are still largely inactive, suggesting confidence in the asset’s long-term potential.
As BTC trades around $106,000, traders will be watching for a rebound above $110,000 to confirm renewed momentum. Until then, maintaining the $100,000–$104,000 zone will be crucial to avoid triggering further liquidations.
If history repeats itself, the combination of oversold RSI, stable institutional demand, and support near the 200-day EMA could pave the way for a gradual recovery into year-end.
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