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Standard Chartered delivers a grim prediction. Bitcoin could plunge to $50,000, according to Geoff Kendrick, their head of crypto research.
Kendrick sees a bleak outlook due to the U.S. economic slowdown and diminishing hopes for rate cuts. The Fed is less generous than expected, weighing heavily on cryptocurrencies. He also points to the decline in Bitcoin ETF holdings—a major demand source that’s evaporating. Institutional investors are pulling back, which doesn’t bode well for the future. The macroeconomic context is rapidly deteriorating, and the appetite for risk is melting away.
Ethereum isn’t spared from the carnage. Kendrick predicts it will drop to $1,400 before stabilizing.
Bitcoin is currently hovering around $67,869, far from its weekly low of $60,008. The bank has slashed its year-end forecasts by a third, lowering the 2026 target to $100,000 from the initial $150,000. Not an optimistic revision. Macroeconomic conditions are worsening, and the risk of investor capitulation is growing dangerously. Standard Chartered fears that holders might throw in the towel en masse.
The current correction is already causing significant damage. Bitcoin has lost up to 50% since its peak in October 2025, with a dramatic low on February 5. According to Standard Chartered, only half of the BTC supply remains profitable today. It’s tough, even if it’s less catastrophic than previous bear cycles. Miners and long-term holders are still holding on, but the pressure is mounting.
Interest rates remain a major hurdle for cryptocurrencies.
Markets have pushed back their expectations for Fed easing. Investors now see a first rate cut later in the year, not before. Kendrick says, “The uncertainty about the Fed’s future direction increases general caution.” Traders prefer to wait for clearer signals rather than take reckless risks. This caution is directly reflected in the declining trading volumes.
ETF flows are a serious concern for Standard Chartered. Bitcoin holdings in ETFs have shrunk by nearly 100,000 BTC since their peak in October 2025. With an average purchase price close to $90,000, many ETF investors are in the red. This mechanically increases the likelihood of further sales. When you’re at a loss, the temptation to cut becomes strong. More on this topic: Bitcoin Falls Below , 000.
Despite this downward revision, the bank maintains a positive long-term outlook. Kendrick notes that blockchain usage data continues to improve. The current slowdown hasn’t caused major failures like in 2022 with Terra/Luna and FTX. That’s something, at least.
Last December, Standard Chartered had already halved its forecasts. Bitcoin at $100,000 by the end of 2025 and $150,000 by the end of 2026, while keeping a wild target of $500,000 for 2030. Bitcoin never reached $100,000 by the end of 2025, as predicted.
The bank then cited the decline in corporate treasury demand and the slowdown in ETF flows. Geoffrey Kendrick had stated that corporate accumulation had “run its course,” leaving ETFs as the only main driver. Not a great outlook.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $67,000 according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro. CoinMarketCap data shows that transaction volume fell by 20% in February compared to the previous month. This reduction highlights a declining interest from short-term investors.
Kendrick also mentioned the impact of Chinese economic developments on market instability. Government restrictions on crypto transactions create notable disruptions, influencing the perception of international investors. China remains a major uncertainty factor.
On February 10, 2026, Janet Yellen reaffirmed during a press conference that any decision on rates would be made cautiously. This statement added to the prevailing uncertainty, affecting investment strategies in digital assets. This follows earlier reporting on FBI Joins Hunt for Nancy Guthrie.
JPMorgan released a report on February 15 with forecasts similar to Standard Chartered. They anticipate critical support around $55,000 for Bitcoin, due to increased volatility in global financial markets.
Volume on major platforms like Binance fell by 15% in the first half of February. Investors are waiting for clearer economic signals before committing further.
Michael Sonnenshein of Grayscale said on CNBC on February 13 that Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain solid despite current fluctuations. He bets on blockchain technology and long-term potential to attract new institutional investors. It remains to be seen if that’s enough to counter the current bearish pressure.
Technical analysis reveals worrying signals for Bitcoin. The 14-day RSI has fallen below 30, an extreme oversold territory rarely reached since 2022. The 50 and 200-day moving averages now form a death cross, a bearish configuration dreaded by traders. Anthony Scaramucci of SkyBridge Capital stated on February 18 that his crypto fund had reduced its Bitcoin exposure by 40% in light of these deteriorating technical indicators.
BlackRock and Fidelity, managers of the largest Bitcoin ETFs, recorded record net outflows last week. Over $2.3 billion exited these investment vehicles in just five trading days. Larry Fink of BlackRock, a staunch Bitcoin supporter, admitted during an investor meeting that the current volatility “tests the patience” of his institutional clientele. These massive withdrawals directly fuel the selling pressure on spot markets.
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